Is summer over? Fall 2025 weather forecast is here. Doyle Rice, USA TODAYSeptember 1, 2025 at 7:01 PM Folks in the eastern half of the United States might be wondering if the current ongoing cool pattern, which even saw temperatures dip into the 20s in portions of West Virginia on Aug.
- - Is summer over? Fall 2025 weather forecast is here.
Doyle Rice, USA TODAYSeptember 1, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Folks in the eastern half of the United States might be wondering if the current ongoing cool pattern, which even saw temperatures dip into the 20s in portions of West Virginia on Aug. 26, is here to stay. Is summer over?
Forecasters say it will definitely stay chilly in the short term: "A fresh area of high pressure will move from Canada into the Northeast over the weekend and remain in place for the Labor Day holiday," AccuWeather meteorologist Adam Douty said in late August. "Most locations will experience comfortable days with a good deal of sunshine and chilly nights."
Indeed, temperatures more common for October will trend as much as 15 degrees below historical averages, with near-record lows at night for many locations. Daytime highs will range from the 60s to 70s, with nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.
Federal forecasters agree with this prediction, noting that "current outlooks for early September favor below-normal temperatures for much of the Midwest and East," Dan Collins, an extended range forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told USA TODAY via e-mail.
When does fall begin?
Sept. 1 is the beginning of meteorological fall in the Northern Hemisphere, while the beginning of astronomical fall is still three weeks away, this year occurring on Sept. 22.
Meteorologists use the calendar to determine the change of seasons, while astronomers and the general public usually go with the autumnal equinox, when the sun is directly aligned with the equator, resulting in equal hours of daylight and darkness.
1 / 55Lightning, tornadoes and wild storms: Incredible weather photosA haboob comes into Chandler, Ariz. on Aug. 25, 2025.West, Florida will remain warm
Residents of Florida and the western U.S. must wonder what the fuss is about, as summerlike warmth is predicted to continue over these areas for most of September, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
In early September, temperatures will be most unusually warm in the Northwest, with upper 90s likely, possibly reaching 100 degrees east of the Cascades, the Weather Prediction Center said in an online forecast.
Much of the eastern half of the nation is predicted to be cooler than average in early September, while Florida and the West stay warm.Warmth will return in the East
However, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill, the warmth will return to the East by mid-month: the current cool temperatures should be replaced by above-average temperatures.
Forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center also note that "we are favoring above normal temperatures for much of the lower 48, including the Midwest and East, over the month of September," meteorologist Anthony Artusa told USA TODAY.
But AccuWeather's Merrill does not foresee a return to any extreme summertime heat of 95 degrees or above this season. "In the East, those temperatures are finished for the year," he told USA TODAY.
What is worrisome in the short-term is the lack of rainfall in the Northeast, which has prompted an expansion of drought in New England, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Aug. 28.
"Drought will worsen in New England before tropical moisture moves in for the second half of the month," Merrill said.
Hurricanes will return
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate periods of increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the rest of the hurricane season.
After the current storm lull during the end of August and early September due in part to dusty, dry air and cool water in Hurricane Erin's wake, the threat of tropical cyclones is favored to return by the second half of the month and into October and even November, Merrill said.
"We are expecting the second half of the hurricane season to be busy," he told USA TODAY.
What about La Niña? Could it still impact the hurricane season?
"Chances for the development of La Niña increase as we approach the upcoming winter," Johnna Infanti, a seasonal forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center told USA TODAY in an email.
The climate pattern, marked by cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could also help boost the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic by the tail end of the season:
"La Niña conditions are associated with more activity (double the amount) in November when compared to ENSO Neutral and especially when compared to Novembers with El Niño conditions," said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, in an email to USA TODAY.
ENSO-neutral conditions occur when Pacific Ocean seawater is neither unusually warm or unusually cold.
Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.How else might La Niña impact fall and winter weather in the US?
According to Infanti, some typical impacts of a La Niña winter can include cooler temperatures over the northern United States, and diminished storm track activity over the southern tier of the U.S. leading to milder-than-normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
In turn, she said the storm track is typically shifted northward, bringing above-normal precipitation to parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
Typical wintertime impacts of La Nina in the United States.
"However, predictions of this event are still uncertain, and indications point to a short lived, weak event. Weak and short lived events tend to have less reliable impacts than strong, long lived events," Infanti said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fall 2025 weather forecast on hurricanes, cool weather and La Niña
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