McDonald's is bringing back Monopoly — analyst sees a menu of upside Francisco VelasquezOctober 4, 2025 at 1:55 AM 0 Mr. Monopoly's impending comeback will boost the fortunes of McDonald's (MCD), according to Jefferies. "The MONOPOLY game will return to the U.S.
- - McDonald's is bringing back Monopoly — analyst sees a menu of upside
Francisco VelasquezOctober 4, 2025 at 1:55 AM
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Mr. Monopoly's impending comeback will boost the fortunes of McDonald's (MCD), according to Jefferies.
"The MONOPOLY game will return to the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade ... which we think will be received positively," Jefferies analyst Andy Barish wrote in a note to clients.
Year to date, McDonald's stock is up over 3%, compared to the S&P 500's (^GSPC) 15% rise.
Despite its shares underperforming the broader market, Jefferies sees room for upside, reiterating a Buy rating with a $360 price target.
Over the past year, McDonald's has delivered a mixed performance, reporting solid earnings that often beat analysts' expectations while struggling with weak global same-store sales. The company's results have been impacted by inflation-related consumer spending habits and geopolitical conflicts.
Barish argued the promotion could help lift traffic, app downloads, and loyalty sign-ups at a time when fast food spending remains under pressure.
The return of Monopoly comes alongside McDonald's Extra Value Meals, which cut 15% off the cost of popular items like the Big Mac and McCrispy compared to a la carte pricing, according to Barish.
Jefferies lowered its US same-store sales estimate for the third quarter from 3% to 2.5% due to September pricing actions, including discounts on popular combo meals. But it expects traffic to improve in the fourth quarter.
"We expect traffic to build up steadily from here (and start more than offsetting lower check in 4Q) as awareness around EVM [Extra Value Meals] builds momentum on top of many other value options on the menu," Barish wrote.
The burger giant is also spending an additional $40 million on advertising and offering rent rebates to some franchisees to back the push. More than 90% of US McDonald's locations are franchisee-operated.
The Monopoly game promotion, first introduced in 1987, has long been one of the chain's most effective marketing tools — but not without baggage.
The promotion was at the center of a notorious fraud scandal during the 1990s and early 2000s, when security officer Jerome P. Jacobson, responsible for overseeing the contest, rigged the game. The years-long scheme led to the conviction of more than 50 people and was later chronicled in the HBO documentary "McMillions." The scandal damaged McDonald's reputation before the brand ultimately moved the promotion abroad, where it remains popular.
Time may heal (some) wounds. Barish argues the Monopoly relaunch could dovetail with McDonald's broader push to rebuild US traffic, "given nostalgia and its recent success in some large Int'l markets." Prizes include a Jeep (STLA) Grand Cherokee and a $10,000 Lowe's (LOW) shopping spree.
Moreover, McDonald's CosMc's-inspired drinks, including lattes and refreshers, may add some "juice" to the stock, the firm notes. CosMc's was McDonald's short-lived beverage-focused concept that offered specialty drinks like spiced lattes and colorful slushies.
Still, the promotion alone won't solve all of McDonald's challenges. The company faces fierce competition in the quick-service space as rivals like Wendy's (WEN) and Burger King (QSR) tout their own discounts. And while the Monopoly promotion could spark buzz, the scale of its impact on earnings remains uncertain.
For investors, the Monopoly revival may serve as another reminder of how heavily McDonald's relies on marketing hooks to keep customers engaged.
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Francisco Velasquez is a Reporter at Yahoo Finance. He can be reached on LinkedIn and X, or via email at [email protected].
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